What's The Scoop On This Super El Niño?

If you’ve been thinking about winter already, you’re not alone, and you've likely been hearing a lot of sensational predictions surrounding El Niño. It's making headlines again, with current forecasts indicating that a very strong El Niño is likely this winter. For skiers and snowboarders in the Pacific Northwest, that naturally raises the big question: what could it mean for snow at my home mountain?

The reality is, it’s much more complicated than the sweeping, broad stories you see in your feed. El Niño is associated with warmer ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, and historically, strong El Niño winters have tended to bring less snow to the Cascades. But history also tells us that El Niño doesn’t write the script for an entire winter. There are plenty of exceptions, and many other factors that can have a major impact on what happens here at Snoqualmie Pass. Long-time locals know, this place has a knack for getting snow even when you think it shouldn't.

Looking back at the numbers, the strongest El Niño seasons have still delivered plenty of snow. The 2015–16 season, for example, brought 402 inches to the Snoqualmie Pass area. That El Niño was record-setting, and was referred to as the "Godzilla" because it was so strong. That’s a good reminder that even when the extreme, large-scale pattern points one direction, winter in the Cascades can have a mind of its own.

A Look at Snow Water Equivalent For Winter 15/16 (Godzilla El Niño) vs Winter 16/17 (La Niña)

Total Snowfall During 2015-16 & Surrounding Seasons

And yes, 2015-16 was definitely a comeback season as it followed our last rough winter of 2014-15. Could 2026-27 be a comeback too? We can only hope!

The 15/16 season wasn't the only very strong El Niño winter that produced decent snowfall either:

• 1997-98 - 361"
• 1982-83 - 336"

What does all of this mean?

At the end of the day, every season is unique, and winter's fate isn't sealed. A "Super" El Niño doesn't guarantee a horrible season. We could actually end up with a downright solid amount of snow. No matter what this winter brings, if you make the most of every opportunity to ride, you'll undoubtedly look back on another great season.

For now, consider this your official invitation to start getting excited for winter—and keep your fingers crossed for plenty of cold storms heading our way. See you when the snow flies!